Climate Change and the Poor

Since the 2007 reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is now no doubt any more: Climate change is in full swing. The facts are on the table. The facts are overwhelming. They can no longer be denied. Climate change is here, it is far advanced, and it cannot be stopped. And it is anthropogenic: made by man.

During the last 100 years (from 1906 to 2006) the global climate increased by 0.74˚C; but in future an increase of at least 0.2˚C per decade is envisaged, which would amount to at least 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Just exactly how the global warming is going to develop will largely depend upon the future greenhouse gas emissions and the global policy to reduce them. Depending on how these emissions will develop, estimates for global warming range from 1.8 to 6,4˚C for this century.

A temperature increase of just 1 to 1.5˚C will lead to (and is already leading to) increased cyclones, floods, drought and forest fires. The number of victims will be overwhelming (as in the case of cyclone Nargis in Burma). The international community will have to do much more to give emergency relief during times of natural disasters, which will lead to more dependencies and undermine economic progress.

Experts fear that a temperature increase of more than 2˚C will destabilize the global climate and lead to uncontrolled global warming which would continue unabated even if we were to completely stop greenhouse gas emissions. For that reason, experts agree that we must prevent temperatures from rising beyond the 2˚C ceiling. Unfortunately, given current trends, global warming is most likely to exceed the 2˚C.

What is the relationship between global warming and poverty reduction? The following evidence cannot be denied:

• While the rich cause most of the greenhouse gas emissions (80%), the poor cause only a fraction of it (20%);
• While the rich can prepare themselves quite well against the consequences of global warming, the poor are much more vulnerable regarding its effects. They will suffer most.

For this reason, the industrialized states have a greater moral obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than the developing countries. Furthermore, rich countries must do much more to help poor states in their endeavour to reduce emissions and to combat poverty.

Experts recognize three huge challenges regarding climate change, that the international community is faced with:

• How can we mitigate emissions, halt global warming and perhaps revert it?
• How can we adapt to global warming in a responsible way?
• How can we shape development in order for it to be more sustainable? (i.e. more climate friendly and resource-friendly)

Poverty leads to people being more vulnerable and more easily affected by natural disasters (for instance, when they live in fragile delta regions); they often have to bear the full brunt of the disaster while people in wealthy countries can much better prepare for disasters or mitigate their effects. “The impact of a natural disaster is anything but natural”, says the Oxfam Report “Climate Alarm” (p. 10). The impact is the result of people being vulnerable, unprotected and uninformed.

Here you’ll find more information and background material regarding “Climate change and the poor”:

PlanetPrepare_Preparing Coastal Communities for Future Disasters.pdf
Climate Change Threats to Health, Part 3 (PDF) 2009
World Vision Position on Climate Change October 2007.pdf
Video on Climate Change Migration